Portugal

	Portugal

General Country Background - II

Demography

Table 1 - Population

Unit

1995 (31/XII estimates)

Resident population
1000

9920.8

By age group
0-14 years

1000

1744.6

15-64 years

1000

6719.6

65 + years

1000

1456.6

Main demographic indicators

Growth Rate Population
% [North/Alentejo]

0.09 [0.34/-0.89]

Crude Birth Rate
0/₀₀ [North/Alentejo]

10.8 [11.8 / 8.2]

Crude Death Rate
0/₀₀ [North/Alentejo]

10.4 [8.8 / 14.1]

Infant Mortality Rate
0/₀₀ [Center/Alentejo]

7.4 [6.0 / 8.6]

Total Fertility Rate
Children per woman

1.406

Life Expectancy at Birth
Years

75.1

Males

Years

71.5

Females

Years

78.6

Dependency ratios and ageing indices (%)

Elderly Ratio
[65+ / 0-14]

83.5

Total Dependency Ratio
[(0-14 + 65+) / 15-64]

47.6

Youth Dependency Ratio
[0-14 / 15-64]

26.0

Elderly Dependency Ratio
[65+ / 15-64]

21.7

Marriage and Divorce Rates

Crude Marriage Rate
0/₀₀

6.6

Crude Divorce Rate
0/₀₀

1.2

Mean Age at First Marriage

Males

Years

26.8

Females

Years

24.9

Mean Age of Woman at Birth of First Child
25.6

Source: Instituto Nacional de Estatística, 1996-1997 [6]

Table 2 - Population indicators: employment statistics (mainland)

		1996 Annual Average	1997 (1^st Quarter)
Total Population		9372.1	9374.9
	Men	4506.2	4489.0
Working Population		4582.8	4607.9
	Men	2504.5	2515.5
Employed Population		4250.5	4271.5
	Men	2342.4	2351.0
Unemployed Population		332.3	336.5
	Men	162.1	164.5
Activity Rate %		48.9	49.2
	Men	55.6	56.0
Unemployment Rate %		7.3	7.3
	Men	6.5	6.5
Source: Instituto Nacional de Estatística, 1996-1997 [6]

Although the Portuguese population remains fairly stable - 9.9 million -, its demography has evolved without precedent in the last three decades under the influence of political, cultural and economic factors. And one of those phenomena is precisely what is represented in the age pyramid graph (Figure 2), which shows the pyramid turning into a haystack [7, 8].

Another way to look into this population ageing is to compare the frequency trends of the younger than 15 in relation to the older than 65 or, better yet, to the ratio +65 / -15 (Figure 3) [7].

The climate in the North is rainier and the soil more fertile than in the South (Alentejo), thus leading to different types of agricultural properties: with small plots in the North containing vineyards and producing assorted vegetables. With large wheat fields and extensive areas of cork and olive trees in the Mediterranean South [1].

Until recent years highways and good roads were scarce. The first highway, linking the most important urban poles - Lisbon and Porto – only dates back to 1991(!). Industries became concentrated in and around the cities while the interior of the country became depleted of a young work force that migrated heavily to the cities and abroad.

Table 3 – Population Natural Growth 1969-1990

		1960	1970	1980	1990
Total Fertility Rate	Nº	3.01	2.76	2.19	1.51
	1960=100	100	92	73	50
Crude Birth Rate	⁰/₀₀	23.9	20.0	16.2	11.8
	1960=100	100	84	68	49
Crude Death Rate	⁰/₀₀	10.6	10.3	9.9	10.4
	1960=100	100	97	93	98
Infant Mortality Rate	⁰/₀₀	77.5	55.5	24.3	10.9
	1960=100	100	72	31	14
Natural Growth Rate	⁰/₀₀	13.3	9.7	6.3	1.4
	1960=100	100	73	49	11
Life Expectancy at Birth (M)	Years	61.2	64.2	68.3^a	70.3^b
	1960=100	100	105	112	115
Life Expectancy at Birth (F)	Years	66.9	70.8	75.3^a	77.5^b
	1960=100	100	106	113	116
Elderly (65+ years)	%	8.0	9.7	11.4^a	13.6^b
	1960=100	100	121	144^a	170^b
a 1981 ^b 1991 Source: Ferrao J. A Demografia Portuguesa. Lisboa: Cadernos do Publico, 1997 [4].

All these factors have to be taken into consideration when looking at indicators of natural growth (Table 3), due to their implications as a main cause of great regional dissimilarities (Figures 4, 5, and 6) [4, 9, 10]. Portugal has around 2 million old persons, but while the national average is around 15%, there are some districts in the interior of the country where the proportion of the population with 65 years or more rise above 30%.

1991

Figure 4: Population Density

Figure 5: Elderly Distribution

Figure 6: Mortality Rate Distribution

These dissimilarities come to have a major influence in many other population indices. Take the suicidal rate for example, underestimated by national statistics, which is 3 times higher in the Monchique area (in the Southwest) than in the rest of the country. A recent study on their Grandola neighbours reported that two thirds of the suicides were over 55 years and as much as 60% over 60, with a mean age of 62.3 ± 18.5 (58.0 for males and 71.0 or females). 63% were retired, 66% were from the lower social classes, and 92% were illiterate or almost illiterate [11].

Currency

Portuguese currency is the escudo (PTE), which is divisible into one hundred cents. One ECU is approximately equivalent to 198$57 (07/97).

Economy

Since 1986, with the adhesion to the European Community (EEC), there has been a gradual opening to the exterior with more consumption, investment, public expenditure and exportations, thus resulting in an increasing average growth rate of the GDP (Tables 4-5).

Table 4: Main indicators (% of growth as compared to previous year)

	1991	1995	1995 (10⁹ PTE)
GDP	2.2	2.3	15.525
Private consumption	5.2	1.8	9.932
Public consumption	3.2	2.5	2.777
Investment	2.8	2.9	3.825
Exports	1.8	11.2	4.900
Imports	6.5	8.9	5.906
Deficit (GDP%)	-0.8	5.2	---
Unemployment rate	4.1	7.2	---
Inflation rate	11.4	4.1	---
Interest rate	n. av.	10	---
Source: Banco de Portugal, Annual Report 1995

Table 5: National Accounts (10⁹ PTE)

Current Prices	1992	1993	1994	1995
GDP	12 427.2	13 211.7	14 082.6	15 073.2
GVA	11 442.7	12 265.3	12 935.3	13 790.2
Output	22 399.8	23 496.7	24 780.3	26 418.0
Taxes and Duties on Imports	84.2	66.6	68.0	65.8
VAT	900.3	879.9	1 079.3	1 217.1
Imports	4 428.6	4 410.8	5 083.3	5 662.0
Final Consumption	10 823.5	11 597.2	12 309.9	13 014.5
GFCF	3 043.3	2 989.2	3 293.7	3 579.6
Changes in Stocks	59.7	-12.8	-13.6	-14.6
Exports	2 929.4	3 048.9	3 575.9	4 155.6
Source: Instituto Nacional de Estatística, 1996-1997 [6]

Many businesses are small family enterprises. Traditional economic sectors are textiles, shoes, tourism, cork and paper, although some new activities have developed within the last years [1].

Table 6: Sectorial Contributions

		Contribution to Civilian Employment (%)	Contribution to GDP (%)
Agriculture	1984	23.8	42.1
	1994	11.5	55.7
Industry	1984	34.1	7.1^a
	1994	32.8	6.0^b
Services	1984	55.7	37.7^a
	1994	34.1	36.5^b
a 1986 ^b 1989 Source: National Accounts, OECD. Paris, 1996 [12]

Última actualização = 06/Abril/97